Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 1: Weekly/Seasonal Sleepers

These are in no particular order:

Braylon Edwards (WR) - Seahawks - Available in 95% of leagues

In general I'm not a huge fan of Braylon Edwards, but the way Week 1 is shaping up, he's a decent start if you're thin at WR. Golden Tate, the Seahawks #2 receiver, is dealing with a sprained knee and won't be healthy enough to go and Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks #3 receiver, is dealing with a hamstring injury which pushes Edwards up to the #2 slot for Sundays game against the Cardinals. Russell Wilson loves to air it out, and his ability to get outside of the pocket and make plays with his feet will keep the Cardinals leaky secondary at bay as they have to pay extra attention to Wilson if he decides to scramble. Sidney Rice will be drawing the Cardinals only respectable cornerback, which leaves some big play opportunities for Edwards.

Kendall Wright (WR) - Titans - Available in 58% of leagues

I really like Kendall Wright this week. The 1 game suspension of Kenny Britt kicks Wright up to the #2 receiver for this game. Wright has the ability to not only take the top off of a defense with his high end speed, but he also is more than capable of turning a short completion into a long one with his run after the catch ability. With so much attention being paid to Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Chris Johnson, Wright will have a ton of opportunities to get chunks of yardage through the air in this matchup. He has tremendous upside and turned into Jake Lockers go-to guy in the preseason. I expect a big day for Wright. I also want to add that if you have a wide receiver or running back on your team who you're not extremely high on, I'd advice you drop him and pick up Wright, he's going to see a ton of targets this year and you want this guy on your bench before people realize this and snatch him up off waivers.

Jonathan Baldwin (WR) - Chiefs - Available in 58% of leagues

Like Kendall Wright, this is a guy you want to stash on your bench before it's too late. The Chiefs offense has a ton of weapons, and defenses have to pay extra attention to Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles, which leaves Baldwin with a bunch of opportunities to florish. Baldwin spent the offseason attached to Matt Cassel's hip and they've developed some chemistry they weren't able to develop last year due to the lockout. At 6'4", he's also a tremendous threat in the red zone and I look for Cassel to look his direction for fades. Baldwin doesn't exactly have great top end speed, but like Bowe, he has the ability to get behind defenders but also is a monster once he catches the ball. He'll be matched up on Dunta Robinson for most of the Falcons game, and Baldwins physicality will overmatch him. Also keep in mind that Bowe missed most of training camp, so it's likely that he's not 100% up to speed. Baldwin took the #1 receiver reps in Bowes absence and Cassel is very comfortable with him.

Kyle Rudolph (TE) - Vikings - Available in 66% of leagues

If you're one of those people who waited on a Tight End until later in the draft and aren't exactly high on the guy you ended up drafting, then go out and get Rudolph. Going into his senior year at Notre Dame, he was considered one of the better Tight Ends in college football. Unfortunately, he hurt his hamstring 6 weeks into the season and he became an afterthought in the minds of NFL scouts. Fast forward a year later. He and Ponder now officially had an offseason to together (which they didn't have last year due to the lockout) and they're very much in sync with each other. Outside of Harvin and Peterson, the Vikings don't have much to speak of on offense, that's why Rudolph is so key. With defenses game planning to take Peterson and Harvin away, Ponder is going to look early and often to his talented Tight End, which will be his safety valve. I look for Rudolph to have a big year and have a really good game against the Jaguars.

Coby Fleener (TE) - Colts - Available in 50% of leagues

Like Rudolph, Fleener was a very highly rated player coming out of college. He's a big guy with exceptional speed and hands. The beauty of this situation is he played football in college with the Colts new Quarterback Andrew Luck and they have a ton of familiarity and continuity with each other. Rookie Quarterback's typically get antsy in the pocket and hesitate to make some throws, so they rely heavily on their Tight Ends. I expect Luck to target Fleener a lot this year and he gets an extra nod in PPR leagues because of that as well. Don't shy away because he's a rookie, this is a different situation because of the college connection between he and Luck.

Eddie Royal (WR) - Chargers - Available in 91% of leagues

Eddie Royal was the talk of the offseason workouts and training camp of the Chargers. His electric speed and ability to separate and makes plays were well documented. Pair that with the lack of chemistry Rivers and Meachem have been able to create, and he's the receiver that Rivers is going rely on when he wants a big play. If you're struggling to fill that WR slot on your roster, this is a guy I'd seriously consider, he's a big play waiting to happen.

Alshon Jeffery (WR) - Bears - Available in 65% of leagues

Jeffery is notorious for absolutely destroying defenses 2 years ago, but fell off big time his senior year at South Carolina. But by all accounts, Jeffery has embraced what it takes to be a pro and the coaching staff can't stop raving about him. He's very similar to Brandon Marshall in he's a big guy, who is physical and has tremendous leaping ability. While I don't think he'll see a lot of action early in the season, he'll start to get his opportunities. This is another guy who you want to stash on your bench, he has a ton of upside and will see the field any time the offense is in the red zone, which translates into immediate touch down opportunities early, with upside to be a stud receiver come playoff time.

Steve Smith (WR) - Rams - Available in 95% of leagues

Ah, yes, Steve Smith. Everyone remembers how studly he was for the Giants, but he has become forgotten over the last few years as he's dealt with injury problems causing him to be buried on the depth charts. Well, Smith is finally healthy and he looked exceptional in the preseason. He's going to be Bradfords go-to target, and all signs point to Smith reverting back to his previous big seasons. The Rams don't have many weapons at all, which puts Smith into a huge role immediately and Bradford is going to look for him early and often. Put the injury concerns behind you, you're not spending a draft pick on him, this is a guy who is overlooked by everybody and could be the key piece to putting your team over the top. Get him before it's too late!

Laurent Robinson (WR) - Jaguars - Available in 48% of leagues

Robinson has always had great speed, the problem was he could never stay healthy. Last year, while with the Cowboys, he showed what he could do when he was able to get on the field and play. Robinson is a big play receiver. While Justin Blackmon is getting all of the attention, it is Robinson who is the reliable target and the player that can bail Blaine Gabbert out of trouble. Yes I know, Blaine Gabbert isn't very good, but he just had his first full offseason to work out some of the rookie kinks he encountered and Robinson has been there to help him through it. While Blackmon was holding out, Robinson was developing key chemistry with Gabbert which will translate to the field on Sundays. The Vikings secondary is a mess and big play opportunities will be there. I look for Robinson to capitalize on this.

Jonathan Dwyer (RB) - Steelers - Available in 85% of leagues

With Rashard Mendenhall likely out for the season, everyone is wondering who is going to assume his role as starting running back. Currently Isaac Redman occupies that position, but he's not very good and eventually the Steelers are going to go with upside. Dwyer is a big running back with really good speed. He tore up this preseason and the coaches already are talking about how they're likely going to split the carries between him and Redman. I look for Dwyer to take over the starting job by Week 5. If you're thin at RB, this is a guy you need to go after before it's too late.

Alfred Morris (RB) - Redskins - Available in 89% of leagues

Mike Shanahan hates fantasy players. Why do I say this? The guy just cannot stick to 1 running back. I have Morris here because he will see carries. How many? I don't know, but he will see his fair share of carries. If you're absolutely desperate and you're out of options, this is the guy to go get. Unlike Dwyer, I wouldn't drop a good upside player for him, but if you have a weak spot on your bench and you're desperate for a running back, Morris is a decent pick up.

Draft Results




Hey guys! Welcome to week 1 of the NFL.
Ron and I had our money league draft Sunday night, going to take some time to go over and critique them.
I'll cover mine first.
Built Stafford Tough
1.
(2)
Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
2.
(19)
Julio Jones (Atl - WR)
3.
(22)
Steven Jackson (StL - RB)
4.
(39)
Brandon Lloyd (NE - WR)
5.
(42)
Antonio Brown (Pit - WR)
6.
(59)
Aaron Hernandez (NE - TE)
7.
(62)
Matthew Stafford Description: This player is a keeper.(Det - QB)
8.
(79)
Titus Young (Det - WR)
9.
(82)
David Wilson (NYG - RB)
10.
(99)
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)
11.
(102)
Danny Amendola (StL - WR)
12.
(119)
Greg Little (Cle - WR)
13.
(122)
Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)
14.
(139)
Rod Streater (Oak - WR)
15.
(142)
D'Qwell Jackson (Cle - LB)
16.
(159)
Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
17.
(162)
Jason Hanson (Det - K)

With the second pick in the draft I decided to go with Rice since this is a PPR league. With no clear backup to him he’ll get his chances at goal line carries and will be an every down back, I think he’s going to have an awesome year.

With my next pick I decided to go with Julio. Brandon Marshall was there as well, and I think with Cutler slinging him the ball he’ll have a great year. But I have bought into the hype about Julio, and pulled the trigger. His line last year was 54/959/8, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that went up to 75/1200/10, or higher, especially with the yards.

I knew going in to the draft I was going to do RB/RB, but the guy picking first had Foster #1 and had Mathews as a keeper, so I figured he wouldn’t take a RB. He did, Trent Richardson, but that’s okay because I was targeting Sjax. I don’t think this is the year where he falls off the table, and you don’t get much more solid in RB2 production than Steven Jackson. Having Amendola back should help defenders back out of the box just a bit. Even if they don’t, Sjax has been the focal point of that offense for years and it hasn’t slowed him down.

Struggled a bit between Lloyd and Colston who was available, but I figured since #1: Tom Brady, #2: Josh Mcdaniels #3: I love the Patriots #4: Tom Brady #5: Tom Brady please be my friend.
My next pick was tougher. I’m a big fan of Brown this year. Had a great year last year, and with Wallace holding out of the preseason, Brown should be the go-to guy. He has crazy explosiveness. However, in all the mocks I’d done, this is the round where TE’s would start to disappear. I though hard about taking Gates, but I figured taking Cook and Olson later would make up the difference of if I had passed on Brown and taken a lesser receiver later.

Somehow, by the good grace of Tebow, Hernandez fell to me at the end of round 6. It took me about half a second to press the DRAFT button. Had Stafford as my keeper, so round 7 went to him.
In rounds 8 and 9, I may have reached a bit for Young and Wilson. But I doubted they would have made it back to me, and I think they both have tremendous upside. I had my roster pretty much filled out by then (needed a flex) and I thought they both had more value than any of the other guys available at that time (Ben Tate-foster owner took him, Nate Washington, Mark Ingram). A bunch of DEFs started going of the board after these picks. I’m a big believe in never drafting a DEF or K until the last two rounds. I’ve had too much success just picking up a new DEF off the wire when I need to.

Romo went two picks before me, so I had to draft Ben. After him it was down to the next tier of QBs and I wanted a backup who was proven. Amendola might have been a bit of a reach too, but I wasn’t sure if anyone else was eyeballing him. Love him in PPR, hoping he returns to form as Bradford’s only target lol.

I wanted to take another WR here because almost all the starters were off the board. I know Little is an excellent receiver and I’m hoping that with a legitimate, or at least more legitimate QB in Weeden he can have a good season. I think we can all see that my RB depth was pretty atrocious, but I imagine so is everyone’s this year. I figured I’d jump on Mendy since he will be the starter when he returns, which could be in a few weeks.

Rod Streater is a kid who has really impressed over in OAK. With their receiving corps banged up, he has received 17 targets from Palmer, blowing away anyone else on that team, and looks like he could be special. I always like to try and pick one high upside no risk player at the end of the draft, and this is him this year. Turns out it was a good thing I picked him, because as soon as I did Ron messaged me “are you kidding me you motherfucker.” Eat it, Ron.

Last 3 picks are whatever, I think Buffalo DEF will have a good year, if I need to drop them for someone else I will it doesn’t matter to me. IDP and kicker are solid.

 Phew, okay. Time to go over Ron’s team.

TeH DawG PounD
1.
(4)
Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
2.
(17)
Drew Brees (NO - QB)
3.
(24)
Adrian Peterson (Min - RB)
4.
(37)
Doug Martin (TB - RB)
5.
(44)
Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
6.
(57)
7.
(64)
DeSean Jackson (Phi - WR)
8.
(77)
Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
9.
(84)
Nate Washington (Ten - WR)
10.
(97)
Tony Romo (Dal - QB)
11.
(104)
Darren Sproles Description: This player is a keeper.(NO - RB)
12.
(117)
Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
13.
(124)
Rashad Jennings (Jac - RB)
14.
(137)
Mikel LeShoure (Det - RB)
15.
(144)
Alshon Jeffery (Chi - WR)
16.
(157)
Luke Kuechly (Car - LB)
17.
(164)
Alex Henery (Phi - K)

 Megatron, great pick. I had him on my team last year and he won it for me. After the first 3 RB’s are gone, can’t go wrong picking him. Although a case could be made for DMC, who went the pick after.

Ah, here’s why I’m so glad I decided to keep Stafford: not having to pick a QB early. I’m of the conflicting mindset that you do need a stud QB to win your league, but I also don’t like taking a QB early. It’s hard to accomplish that, of course. I managed to get lucky last year, being high on Stafford I drafted him in the 7th and it paid off. Ron did what he needed to do, and drafted Brees in the 2nd. I’m not going to get down on him for it, Brees is a stud and will probably win a few games for him by himself.

AP and Doug Martin. AP won’t play week 1 (for all intents and purposes). Doug Martin is a rookie RB, and I try to stay away from them myself. Those are pretty risky picks, but they could certainly pay off. If AP can return to form soon and Martin lives up to his hype then he’ll have proven me wrong and I’ll be happy for him. He still won’t beat me though.

D Thomas is very skilled and could be huge if Manning throws like the Manning of old. He looked very good against SF in his last preseason game. He didn’t throw any deep balls, and one would hope he hasn’t lost his arm strength, because that’s a big part of Thomas’s appeal. Jermichael is a freak but he is pretty disappointing. Well, I guess he’s not really that disappointing, but I just feel like he could be much better.

Desean Jackson is a good pick, I like him this year. His ADP is so low for being Philly’s #1 receiver (I don’t believe Maclin is that guy, regardless of what the depth chart says). If Desean decides he wants to play he will be the main receiver in Philly. Great value pick.

Ew, a DEF in the 8th round. Gross gross gross! Eagles DEF looks nice, but are worth more than a Titus Young? We’ll see. Nate Washington is capable of doing whatever the team asks of him, good backup. Romo, another excellent pick, I wanted him. Very good backup.

Sproles as an 11th round keeper, lucky bastard. Best part of his draft for sure. Floyd also a nice pick in the 12th, #1 deep threat with Vjax gone. Keep hearing about Rivers declining arm strength though. He’ll take his shots however.

Absolutely nothing wrong with taking Jennings this late in the draft. Latest news is MJD will be 3rd down back week 1. I didn’t think he would play at all but I suppose he’s too talented to keep off the field. Jennings won’t play very often after that, but has shown he has skill in case of an MJD injury.
Detroit was one of the teams whose RB situation I decided to stay away from. Who knows who’s going to play there? I don’t. Leshoure is talented and worth a late round flier in case he ends up being the guy starting, but only as long as you have lots of other RB options, which Ron does. Alshon probably won’t do anything this season, but 15th round why not I guess. IDP and K are fine.

Well there you have it folks. I think we both did pretty well. His is more risky than I would have liked, but it could go farther than mine. I love my starting lineup, but I have very little depth. One bad injury and I could be sunk. I like my chances to repeat as league champ though.

As always, we welcome your comments/questions/concerns. Also feel free to ask us anything you might have on your mind at our twitter @FanFootFanWR

Thanks for reading!