The Dilemma: Foster, Rice or McCoy?

The big question out there currently, is which of the big 3 running backs do I take if I have the #1 pick? Lets be honest, you cannot go wrong with either Foster, Rice or McCoy - but I went in depth with some stats and personal philosphy to determine who I would take with that pick if given the chance. The results are as follows:

Lesean McCoy (3 years)

Rushes (avg): 211 rushes per year
Receptions (avg): 55 receptions per year
Rushing Yds (avg): 67 yards per game
Receving Yds (avg): 26 yards per game
Touchdowns (avg): 11 TD's per year

Projections based off of career totals: 1,072 rushing yards (107 pts), 55 receptions (55 pts), 416 receiving yards (27 pts), 11 touchdowns (66 pts)  --- Grand Total: 255

Arian Foster (2 years)

Rushes (avg): 302 rushes per year
Receptions (avg): 59 receptions per year
Rushing Yds (avg): 97 yards per game
Receiving Yds (avg): 42 yards per game
Touchdowns (avg): 10 TD's per year

Projections based off of career totals: 1,552 rushing yards (155 pts), 59 receptions (59 pts), 672 receiving yards (44 pts), 10 touchdowns (60 pts)  ---  Grand Total: 318

Ray Rice (4 years)

Rushes (avg): 239 rushes per year
Receptions (avg): 62 receptions per year
Rushing Yds (avg): 71 yards per game
Receiving Yds (avg): 36 yards per game
Touchdowns (avg): 9 TD's per year

Projections based off of career totals: 1,136 rushing yards (113 pts), 62 receptions (62 pts), 576 receiving yards (38 pts), 9 touchdowns (54 pts)  ---  Grand Total: 276

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Analysis: Arian Fosters stats are slightly skewed because I only used the 2 years he started for his stats, just a heads up. With all 3 players being young, there will be some flaws in the overall projections, but this is a good base line for understanding work loads of each running back.

Lesean McCoy easily gets the least amount of rushes per year, but numbers wise, he makes the most of them. Andy Reid said that he overused McCoy last year, so it's possible that he won't see near the production he did last year in terms of total rushes. However, they don't have another very good back on the roster, so he's going to get his touchdown opportunities.

In terms of receptions, all of the guys are going to get 50-65 receptiions per year (as long as they're healthy). Of the running backs, only Rice has broke the 70 receptions per season mark and he's done that twice in the last 3 years. Not only is Rice a quality runner, but he gets a ridiculous amount of receptions and in PPR format, that is huge.

Of all of the backs, Foster definitely would be considered the work horse of them all, but that also is why his stats are higher than everyone else's over all, because he gets the ball a lot. Ray Rice, over the last 2 years has got a really good work load (about 300 carries per game, which estrapulates to (300 rushes x 4.75 yards per carry) 1425 rushing yards, which boosts him to Foster type levels.

Overall, each of these running backs are special in there own right. Each guy will get their fair share of rushing yards as well as receiving yards. They as well are going to get about 10 TD's a piece. The thing to keep in mind, and why I'm not as high on Foster as the other 2, is Foster has Tate vulturing some carries/TD's opportunities, where the other guys are on the field for the majority of the game.

On a yearly basis, Ray Rice seems like the best RB out of the bunch. He gets a high volume of carries, has no one vulturing his yards (this year - last year he had Ricky Williams vulturing them). He also gets nearly 70 receptions per year. Between McCoy and Foster it's all about preference for me. With Foster getting a ton of touches, he's going to wear down in the playoff stretch, whereas McCoy is going to still be relatively fresh. I know it's not wise to look that far ahead, but it's a tie-breaking factor for me. Foster is going to get you plenty of production early and often, but I feel like it's going to tail off near the end of the season with all of the wear and tear of the almost 400 touches per year (rushing/receiving combined).

My ranking:

1. Ray Rice
2. Lesean McCoy
3. Arian Foster

Conclusion: I like each of these backs equally well, but in the home run stretch of the season, I want my RB's to have fresh legs, so I'm bumping Foster below McCoy. Foster lost his starting QB, so that also hindered his rushing yards a bit because teams could focus in on him, and it also made him the focus of the offense even more than before. While I shouldn't hold that against him, I have to in this case as I have to be unbiased. Not only that, but he has dealt with hamstring problems the last few years, so their is a chance he doesn't play the full season, whereas the other 2 RB's have been extremely healthy thus far.