Alright guys, I said this week I'd have a little something extra to add in and I do. I made a program where I load in my players, prices and projected points and I have it generate 500,000 different outcomes that cost $50,000 or less.
With that data, I'll then post the top 20 projected lineups that my program generated in those 500,000 outcomes and I'll post them. You then can use your knowledge of the game and matchups, paired with what will be the top projected lineups to form your final conclusion on what lineup you want to use. I feel like this will give each of you some leeway in determining the best lineup for yourself because you'll have the data right in front of you. Plus like I said, you're almost guaranteed to find a lineup that you fall in love with. Since everyone covets certain players over other players, or you possibly have some insider information, you can use that knowledge to apply to these lineups to help you solidify that top spot in your Fan Duel leagues. You'll also see that most of these lineups come in under $50,000, so you have room to make whatever adjustments you want to maximize the roster how you want by adding/removing a player or two and making it your own.
Here we go, the top 20 Fan Duel lineups generated based off of projected points from FantasyPros for Week 2:
Lineup #1:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: CJ Spiller
RB: Matt Forte
WR: Andre Roberts
WR: DeSean Jackson
WR: Reggie Wayne
TE: Antonio Gates
Total Price: $49800 - Projected Total: 105.7
Lineup #2:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: Trent Richardson
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Wes Welker
WR: Andre Roberts
TE: Julius Thomas
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 105.2
Lineup #3:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: Ray Rice
WR: Mike Williams
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Jermichael Finley
Total Price: $49200 - Projected Total: 104.9
Lineup #4:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Jordan Cameron
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.5
Lineup #5:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Frank Gore
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Mike Williams
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Eric Decker
TE: Brent Celek
Total Price: $49700 - Projected Total: 104.4
Lineup #6:
QB: Drew Brees
RB: Darren Sproles
RB: Eddie Lacy
WR: Vincent Jackson
WR: Steve Smith
WR: DeSean Jackson
TE: Jared Cook
Total Price: $49800 - Projected Total: 104.4
Lineup #7:
QB: Eli Manning
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Mike Williams
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Golden Tate
TE: Antonio Gates
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.3
Lineup #8:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB: Matt Forte
WR: Vincent Brown
WR: DeSean Jackson
WR: Golden Tate
TE: Julius Thomas
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.2
Lineup #9:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Steve Johnson
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Jordan Cameron
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.1
Lineup #10:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Ray Rice
RB: Matt Forte
WR: Mike Williams
WR: Andre Roberts
WR: Andre Johnson
TE: Brent Celek
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.1
Lineup #11:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Steve Johnson
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Jermichael Finley
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 104.1
Lineup #12:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Darren Sproles
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Reggie Wayne
WR: Jordy Nelson
WR: Pierre Garcon
TE: Brent Celek
Total Price: $49300 - Projected Total: 103.8
Lineup #13:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Jermichael Finley
Total Price: $50000 - Projected Total: 103.6
Lineup #14:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Darren McFadden
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Golden Tate
TE: Brent Celek
Total Price: $49500 - Projected Total: 103.6
Lineup #15:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Victor Cruz
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Golden Tate
TE: Brent Celek
Total Price: $49500 - Projected Total: 103.2
Lineup #16:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Reggie Wayne
TE: Brandon Myers
Total Price: $49800 - Projected Total: 102.8
Lineup #17:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Eddie Lacy
RB: Darren McFadden
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Marques Colston
TE: Jared Cook
Total Price: $49700 - Projected Total: 102.7
Lineup #18:
QB: Terrelle Pryor
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew
RB: LeSean McCoy
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Brandon Myers
Total Price: $48800 - Projected Total: 102.7
Lineup #19:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Eddie Lacy
RB: Darren McFadden
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Marques Colston
TE: Jared Cook
Total Price: $49700 - Projected Total: 102.7
Lineup #20:
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: CJ Spiller
WR: Steve Smith
WR: TY Hilton
WR: Reggie Wayne
TE: Jermichael Finley
Total Price: $49700 - Projected Total: 102.5
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Fan Duel Week 1 Recap
Whats up everyone? In this article I'm going to review the optimal lineup I posted as well as breaking down the top lineup and how far off I was in my projection. Each week is another piece of information to add to my projections, so as you'll see I had some variables not fall my way, such as Ridley fumbling and getting put in Bill Belicheck's dog house for the majority of the game and how that may or may not have effected my week overall.
My optimal lineup results: Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Tony Romo - 19.4 - 17.42
RB: Frank Gore - 14.7 - 13.5
RB: Steven Ridley -14.7 - 2.6
WR: Andre Johnson - 15.0 - 20.6
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.3 - 15.4
WR: Pierre Garcon - 13.6 - 9.9
TE: Jimmy Graham - 14.2 - 12.5
Projected Total: 104.9 - Actual Total: 91.91 - Differential: -12.99
Winning lineup for Week 1 (Rotoworld freeroll): Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Matt Ryan - 23.1 - 20.36
RB: LeSean McCoy - 16.6 - 25.4
RB: Reggie Bush - 13.6 - 27.1
WR: Reggie Wayne - 11.9 - 19.6
WR: Randall Cobb - 10.9 - 20.9
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.2 - 15.4
TE: Brandon Meyers - 5.1 - 16.1
Projected Total: 94.4 - Actual Total: 144.86 - Differential: +50.46
As you can see, I only got above projected value on 2 of my players: Andre Johnson and Danny Amendola
The biggest thing I take from this is it can't be completely projection based, you need to get your studs in your lineups and not search completely for value everywhere. The whole point of using relativity was to do just that. The key is to go with your gut on the top guys and using the relative projections to find your value steals along the way.
Andre Johnson is an example of where combining stud factor and relativity together gets you a good pick. So with the Week 1 out of the way, I'll continue to tweak and manipulate my system to narrow it down even better. Starting next week, I plan on adding two new features:
1. I'm building a program that will generate multiple $50,000 lineups to fully maximize the projections - How I did it in Week 1 was simply found every value possible via my data and compiled a lineup. However, as you can see, nothing can be projected perfectly as certain players are going to have huge weeks. Reggie Bush for example, you could see that performance coming a mile away BUT I felt safer taking two stud running backs who had favorable matchups based off last year. You can see how that is flawed however, Gore torched the Packers last year, but was stuffed this year. We won't get a good read on what teams are good/bad against the run/pass until about week 4 or 5, so you can see why I based my opinion on Gore based on his performance against the same team last year
2. I'm going to add a new method to my projects that is Vegas based - As you all know, their are millions of dollars put down on bets every week in Vegas. How can this information be valuable to us? We'll their are guys called 'sharps' who are the top notch bettors in Vegas. Each week their bets are for display and we can get a read on which teams they feel will win and which ones won't. While that part of the equation means nothing, they also do the Over/Under for each game and this becomes extremely valuable to us. Lets say their are a few matchups where the Over/Under is set at 50. If the sharps are strongly taking the over, then we know that they're almost certain that their will be some massive scoring in those games and thus we should try to target players from those teams. Again, this is just an experiment as we try to perfect the formula for creating the best lineups possible.
Like always, if any of you have any suggestions, please feel free to leave comments. Constructive criticism is always good because it makes me better and good ideas/strategies on how to maximize my method are also very helpful. The goal is to win every week and with so much luck involved, any upper hand we can get statistically each week puts us one step closer to being the best we can be.
My optimal lineup results: Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Tony Romo - 19.4 - 17.42
RB: Frank Gore - 14.7 - 13.5
RB: Steven Ridley -14.7 - 2.6
WR: Andre Johnson - 15.0 - 20.6
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.3 - 15.4
WR: Pierre Garcon - 13.6 - 9.9
TE: Jimmy Graham - 14.2 - 12.5
Projected Total: 104.9 - Actual Total: 91.91 - Differential: -12.99
Winning lineup for Week 1 (Rotoworld freeroll): Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Matt Ryan - 23.1 - 20.36
RB: LeSean McCoy - 16.6 - 25.4
RB: Reggie Bush - 13.6 - 27.1
WR: Reggie Wayne - 11.9 - 19.6
WR: Randall Cobb - 10.9 - 20.9
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.2 - 15.4
TE: Brandon Meyers - 5.1 - 16.1
Projected Total: 94.4 - Actual Total: 144.86 - Differential: +50.46
As you can see, I only got above projected value on 2 of my players: Andre Johnson and Danny Amendola
The biggest thing I take from this is it can't be completely projection based, you need to get your studs in your lineups and not search completely for value everywhere. The whole point of using relativity was to do just that. The key is to go with your gut on the top guys and using the relative projections to find your value steals along the way.
Andre Johnson is an example of where combining stud factor and relativity together gets you a good pick. So with the Week 1 out of the way, I'll continue to tweak and manipulate my system to narrow it down even better. Starting next week, I plan on adding two new features:
1. I'm building a program that will generate multiple $50,000 lineups to fully maximize the projections - How I did it in Week 1 was simply found every value possible via my data and compiled a lineup. However, as you can see, nothing can be projected perfectly as certain players are going to have huge weeks. Reggie Bush for example, you could see that performance coming a mile away BUT I felt safer taking two stud running backs who had favorable matchups based off last year. You can see how that is flawed however, Gore torched the Packers last year, but was stuffed this year. We won't get a good read on what teams are good/bad against the run/pass until about week 4 or 5, so you can see why I based my opinion on Gore based on his performance against the same team last year
2. I'm going to add a new method to my projects that is Vegas based - As you all know, their are millions of dollars put down on bets every week in Vegas. How can this information be valuable to us? We'll their are guys called 'sharps' who are the top notch bettors in Vegas. Each week their bets are for display and we can get a read on which teams they feel will win and which ones won't. While that part of the equation means nothing, they also do the Over/Under for each game and this becomes extremely valuable to us. Lets say their are a few matchups where the Over/Under is set at 50. If the sharps are strongly taking the over, then we know that they're almost certain that their will be some massive scoring in those games and thus we should try to target players from those teams. Again, this is just an experiment as we try to perfect the formula for creating the best lineups possible.
Like always, if any of you have any suggestions, please feel free to leave comments. Constructive criticism is always good because it makes me better and good ideas/strategies on how to maximize my method are also very helpful. The goal is to win every week and with so much luck involved, any upper hand we can get statistically each week puts us one step closer to being the best we can be.
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Fan Duel Week 1 Optimal Lineup
Alright, now that we have all of our data compiled, it's time to finally create our lineup. One quick note... I save myself as close to $10,000 as I can to get a kicker and defense. I play matchups at those positions and spend the bare minimum I can get away with. This leaves me $50,000 to spend on the meat and potatos of my lineup.
This is my optimal lineup for Week 1 using all of the data I previous shared and broke down:
QB: Tony Romo - $8,200 - 19.4
RB: Steven Ridley - $7,100 - 14.7
RB: Frank Gore - $6,800 - 14.7
WR: Andre Johnson - $7,400 - 15
WR: Danny Amendola - $6,700 - 13.2
WR: Pierre Garcon - $6,200 - 13.6
TE: Jimmy Graham - $7,500 - 14.2
Total Cost: $49,900 - Projected Total: 104.8
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
This is my optimal lineup for Week 1 using all of the data I previous shared and broke down:
QB: Tony Romo - $8,200 - 19.4
RB: Steven Ridley - $7,100 - 14.7
RB: Frank Gore - $6,800 - 14.7
WR: Andre Johnson - $7,400 - 15
WR: Danny Amendola - $6,700 - 13.2
WR: Pierre Garcon - $6,200 - 13.6
TE: Jimmy Graham - $7,500 - 14.2
Total Cost: $49,900 - Projected Total: 104.8
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Fan Duel Week 1 Tight End Relative Values
Alright, so we've discussed the Quarterback, Running Back and Wide Receiver positions, it's time to move on to the last position we will cover and that is the Tight End position. We'll be looking at the calculations and showing the relative values available. Unfamiliar with relative values, check out my detailed article here
.
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Antonio Gates - saving $2,100, while still getting 73% of Graham's total
2. Jordan Cameron - saving $2,600, while still getting 62% of Graham's total
3. Jared Cook - saving $2,000, while still getting 65% of Graham's total
4. Jermichael Finley - saving $1,700, while still getting 63% of Graham's total
5. Kyle Rudolph - saving $1,300, while still getting 65% of Graham's total
Potential X-Factor: Zach Sudfeld.
With Gronkowski injured, Sudfeld becomes the starting tight end in the Patriots offense which loves to utilize the tight end position. Sudfeld only costs $4,500 which is $3,000 less than you'd have to pay for Graham and he very well could end up putting up similar numbers to Graham. He's the ultimate value because that frees up at least $2,000 to spend at QB, RB or WR
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Antonio Gates - saving $2,100, while still getting 73% of Graham's total
2. Jordan Cameron - saving $2,600, while still getting 62% of Graham's total
3. Jared Cook - saving $2,000, while still getting 65% of Graham's total
4. Jermichael Finley - saving $1,700, while still getting 63% of Graham's total
5. Kyle Rudolph - saving $1,300, while still getting 65% of Graham's total
Potential X-Factor: Zach Sudfeld.
With Gronkowski injured, Sudfeld becomes the starting tight end in the Patriots offense which loves to utilize the tight end position. Sudfeld only costs $4,500 which is $3,000 less than you'd have to pay for Graham and he very well could end up putting up similar numbers to Graham. He's the ultimate value because that frees up at least $2,000 to spend at QB, RB or WR
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
Fan Duel Week 1 Wide Receiver Relative Values
In the last article, we showed which high and average cost Running Backs were the value picks for your Fan Duel lineup. In this article we're going to go over the relative value of the Wide Receiver position. Unfamiliar with Relative Value, read my article explaining it here.
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Bang For Your Buck Picks
1. Andre Johnson - saving $1,400, while still getting 86% of Johnson's total
2. Pierre Garcon - saving $2,600, while still getting 78% of Johnson's total
3. Danny Amendola - saving $2,100, while still getting 75% of Johnson's total
4. Marques Colston - saving $2,300, while still getting 71% of Johnson's total
5. Dwayne Bowe - saving $2,000, while still getting 71% of Johnson's total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best WR you can get this week, that man would be Julio Jones. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get similar production overall from him that you would get from Johnson while paying $800 less (9%).
Top 5 Low Price Players
1. TY Hilton - saving $3,000, while still getting 63% of Johnson's total
2. Antonio Brown - saving $2,400, while still getting 68% of Johnson's total
3. Miles Austin - saving $2,600, while still getting 62% of Johnson's total
4. Cecil Shorts - saving $2,500, while still getting 62% of Johnson's total
5. Reggie Wayne - saving $2,100, while still getting 68% of Johnson's total
If your strategy is to load up at Quarterback or Running Back, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting close to 65%-70% of Johnson's total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projection
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Bang For Your Buck Picks
1. Andre Johnson - saving $1,400, while still getting 86% of Johnson's total
2. Pierre Garcon - saving $2,600, while still getting 78% of Johnson's total
3. Danny Amendola - saving $2,100, while still getting 75% of Johnson's total
4. Marques Colston - saving $2,300, while still getting 71% of Johnson's total
5. Dwayne Bowe - saving $2,000, while still getting 71% of Johnson's total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best WR you can get this week, that man would be Julio Jones. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get similar production overall from him that you would get from Johnson while paying $800 less (9%).
Top 5 Low Price Players
1. TY Hilton - saving $3,000, while still getting 63% of Johnson's total
2. Antonio Brown - saving $2,400, while still getting 68% of Johnson's total
3. Miles Austin - saving $2,600, while still getting 62% of Johnson's total
4. Cecil Shorts - saving $2,500, while still getting 62% of Johnson's total
5. Reggie Wayne - saving $2,100, while still getting 68% of Johnson's total
If your strategy is to load up at Quarterback or Running Back, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting close to 65%-70% of Johnson's total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projection
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
Fan Duel Week 1 Running Back Relative Values
Alright, so we just went over the Quarterback value picks, now it's onto the Running Back position. Below I'll show you my calculations as well as the relative value picks to be obtained this week. Unfamiliar with relative value, read my article explaining it here.
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Best Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Trent Richardson - saving $1,100, while still getting 86% of Peterson's total
2. LeSean McCoy - saving $1,200, while still getting 83% of Peterson's total
3. Steven Jackson - saving $1,300, while still getting 81% of Peterson's total
4. Alfred Morris - saving $1,100, while still getting 82% of Peterson's total
5. Marshawn Lynch - saving $900, while still getting 79% of Peterson's total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best RB you can get this week, that man would be Jamaal Charles. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get similar production overall from him than you would from Peterson while paying $700 less (7%).
Top 5 Low Priced Players
1. Frank Gore - saving $2,700, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
2. Steven Ridley - saving $2,400, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
3. Maurice Jones-Drew - saving $2,000, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
4. David Wilson - saving $1,800, while still getting 71% of Peterson's total
5. Matt Forte - saving $1,400, while still getting 70% of Peterson's total
If your strategy is to load up at Quarterback or Wide Receiver, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting nearly 75% of Peterson's total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Best Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Trent Richardson - saving $1,100, while still getting 86% of Peterson's total
2. LeSean McCoy - saving $1,200, while still getting 83% of Peterson's total
3. Steven Jackson - saving $1,300, while still getting 81% of Peterson's total
4. Alfred Morris - saving $1,100, while still getting 82% of Peterson's total
5. Marshawn Lynch - saving $900, while still getting 79% of Peterson's total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best RB you can get this week, that man would be Jamaal Charles. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get similar production overall from him than you would from Peterson while paying $700 less (7%).
Top 5 Low Priced Players
1. Frank Gore - saving $2,700, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
2. Steven Ridley - saving $2,400, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
3. Maurice Jones-Drew - saving $2,000, while still getting 74% of Peterson's total
4. David Wilson - saving $1,800, while still getting 71% of Peterson's total
5. Matt Forte - saving $1,400, while still getting 70% of Peterson's total
If your strategy is to load up at Quarterback or Wide Receiver, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting nearly 75% of Peterson's total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
Fan Duel Week 1 Quarterback Relative Values
In the last article, I discussed how I will be using Relative Price and Relative Points to build my Fan Duel lineups this year. If you're unfamiliar with what I'm talking about, check out the post here.
In this article, I'll be showing you my calculations for every Quarterback who I deem draftable in Week 1. Not only that, but I'll also be listing my top 5 value picks for the Quarterback position. So here we go:
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Best Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Tony Romo - saving $1,400 (15%), while still getting 84% of Brees' total
2. Michael Vick - saving $1,500 (16%), while still getting 80% of Brees' total
3. Andrew Luck - saving $1,100 (11%), while still getting 86% of Brees' total
4. Matthew Stafford - saving $1,100 (11%), while still getting 84% of Brees' total
5. Colin Kaepernick - saving $900 (9%), while still getting 89% of Brees' total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best QB you can get this week, that man would be Matt Ryan. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get more production overall from him than you would from Brees' while paying $800 less (8%).
Top 5 Low Priced Players
1. Eli Manning - saving $1,800, while still getting 69% of Brees' total
2. Andy Dalton - saving $2,000, while still getting 68% of Brees' total
3. Carson Palmer - saving $3,300, while still getting 63% of Brees' total
4. Alex Smith - saving $3,000, while still getting 63% of Brees' total
5. Matt Schaub - saving $2,800, while still getting 64% of Brees' total
If your strategy is to load up on skill players such as Wide Receiver and Running Back, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting nearly 70% of Brees' total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
In this article, I'll be showing you my calculations for every Quarterback who I deem draftable in Week 1. Not only that, but I'll also be listing my top 5 value picks for the Quarterback position. So here we go:
When looking for good relative value, you want to pinpoint the players who have a much lower Relative Dollars and an above average amount of Relative Points. You don't want to completely cripple your lineup by taking a guy who is going to get 50% of the top rated players points, but you also don't want to spend too much if you don't have to.
Top 5 Best Bang For Your Buck Players
1. Tony Romo - saving $1,400 (15%), while still getting 84% of Brees' total
2. Michael Vick - saving $1,500 (16%), while still getting 80% of Brees' total
3. Andrew Luck - saving $1,100 (11%), while still getting 86% of Brees' total
4. Matthew Stafford - saving $1,100 (11%), while still getting 84% of Brees' total
5. Colin Kaepernick - saving $900 (9%), while still getting 89% of Brees' total
As you can see from the picture, if you're dead set on getting the best QB you can get this week, that man would be Matt Ryan. He's not a value pick at all because of his high price, but you can get more production overall from him than you would from Brees' while paying $800 less (8%).
Top 5 Low Priced Players
1. Eli Manning - saving $1,800, while still getting 69% of Brees' total
2. Andy Dalton - saving $2,000, while still getting 68% of Brees' total
3. Carson Palmer - saving $3,300, while still getting 63% of Brees' total
4. Alex Smith - saving $3,000, while still getting 63% of Brees' total
5. Matt Schaub - saving $2,800, while still getting 64% of Brees' total
If your strategy is to load up on skill players such as Wide Receiver and Running Back, then you can't go wrong with any of those 5 players. All of them are getting nearly 70% of Brees' total, but saving you a significant amount of money to spend in other areas.
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
Fan Duel: What exactly is relativity and how can it be applied to your lineups?
Right off the bat, I'd like to welcome you all back to another year of fantasy football! We've waited all winter and summer for the NFL to return and it's finally here. I'm like a kid on christmas morning right now awaiting the first slate of games.
Now on to the topic at hand: Relativity.
What exactly is relativity and how does it apply to fantasy football? During the last few months, I've done extensive research for auction drafts and trying to figure out the best way to spend my all so valuable $200. With highly rated players going for upwards of $70 a piece, it was crucial to me to find that happy medium between getting not only value from my picks, but also production from that value.
In my research I stumbled across a great article written by Ryan Rouillard of Rotoviz.com. In this article I was opened up to a whole new outlook on how exactly to find value and production with my money. He goes into great detail explaining the theory behind relativity as it pertains to auction draft and gives the formula in which he reaches his final conclusion.
With that in mind, I decided that this year I am going to apply this exact concept to Fan Duel. If you're not familiar with Fan Duel, it's a daily fantasy site where each week you get $60,000 to spend on QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF. The world has an instant gratification mindset and their is no better way for instant gratification from fantasy football than to create a weekly lineup, submit it and trying to win money with it.
Now that I have the concept in place, it's time to break it all down for you so you can understand a little bit about why I'm approaching these daily fantasy sites with this method. Each week I'll be crunching the numbers for each position and giving you the projections.
First things first though, I want to preface this by saying that no one in the world can predict what is going to happen from week to week in the NFL, their are a billion variables involved and anything can happen, so these projections are far from the be all end all, but it's a great starting point.
I'll be using the FantasyPro's projections for these outcomes. They compile of a list of the best fantasy sites around and come up with a consensus number each week. These guys have been doing this for a long time and I trust that they know what they're talking about when it comes to projections.
Without further adieu, I'll now explain what relativity is. On my calculations for each position, you're going to see a label for "Player Name", "Price", "Projected Points", "Relative Price" and "Relative Points". Let me explain what each of these means and how they pertain to picking the best possible lineup you can to maximize your money and your overall production:
Relative Price: As I said, for each position you're going to see the Player Name and Fan Duel Price for each player. I've listed them from highest price to lowest price so we can get a very good read as we look for values.
Week 1: Drew Brees: $9,600
Week 1: Tony Romo: $8,200
As you see Drew Brees is the most expensive Quarterback for Week 1 at $9,600. Now we're going to compare his overall value to that of a slightly lower priced Quarterback.
Before I do that however, let me explain how the calculations work for Relative Price. With each position, it's crucial to figure out the most expensive player and then to build off of that. We'll be taking all the Quarterbacks and using their Fan Duel price against the most expensive player at the position to get their Relative Price. So Relative Price is simply the % of money you're saving by taking X player over the top priced player
Drew Brees: $9,600 / $9,600 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: $8,200/$9,600 = .85 (85%)
So as you can see, without taking projected points into account, I'm already getting a 15% value (100% - 85% = 15%) if I take Tony Romo instead of Drew Brees. But you're probably still thinking "Well duh, I can tell that I'm spending less on Romo than Brees, so whats your point and how does this help me?"
That leads me to Relative Points.
Relative Points: This works exactly the same as the Relative Dollars, except this time we'll be setting the highest projected player and forming our relative points for each players projections based off of the highest projected player at each position.
Drew Brees: 23 projected points
Tony Romo: 19.4 projected points
Sticking with the same two players for the Relative Dollars, we'll now figure out the Relative Price. All we'll be doing is taking each players projected points and dividing it from the top players projected to points to come up with a percentage of production in comparison to the top projected player.
Drew Brees: 23 / 23 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: 19.4 / 23 = .84 (84%)
As you can see, if we were to take Tony Romo over Drew Brees, we'd be getting 84% of Brees' weekly production if we went with Romo.
Now we must tie it all together to understand exactly why these two pieces of information are invaluable to us. But first, I want to emphasize it again, nobody can project the NFL, it's just not possible. But we have the best estimate from a reliable projection service to base our calculations off of. It's not the be all end all, but it's the only information we have to work with.
Drew Brees: $9,600 / $9,600 = 1.0 (100%)
Drew Brees: 23 / 23 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: $8,200 / $9,600 = .85 (85%)
Tony Romo: 19.4 / 23 = .84 (84%)
Our conclusion is that we can get 84% of Brees' production by drafting Tony Romo while spending 15% less money on him.
This doesn't just apply to Quarterbacks, it applies to any position where you're looking for value. Where this truly becomes valuable is when you're completely sold on a high priced player at any position. Once you draft a high priced player, your money to spend takes a significant hit and then you're scrambling to find good production at a low price at the other positions. Using this method not only helps you maximize your money into overall production, but it helps you spotlight the cheap steals later in the draft to allow you take a few of the higher priced guys you really want, but can't figure out what lower priced guys to plug in who will produce for you that week.
In my next articles I'll be showing you my calculations for each positions and naming what I feel are the top 5 best values at each position. Like I said, I'll be doing this weekly, so stay tuned!
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
Now on to the topic at hand: Relativity.
What exactly is relativity and how does it apply to fantasy football? During the last few months, I've done extensive research for auction drafts and trying to figure out the best way to spend my all so valuable $200. With highly rated players going for upwards of $70 a piece, it was crucial to me to find that happy medium between getting not only value from my picks, but also production from that value.
In my research I stumbled across a great article written by Ryan Rouillard of Rotoviz.com. In this article I was opened up to a whole new outlook on how exactly to find value and production with my money. He goes into great detail explaining the theory behind relativity as it pertains to auction draft and gives the formula in which he reaches his final conclusion.
With that in mind, I decided that this year I am going to apply this exact concept to Fan Duel. If you're not familiar with Fan Duel, it's a daily fantasy site where each week you get $60,000 to spend on QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF. The world has an instant gratification mindset and their is no better way for instant gratification from fantasy football than to create a weekly lineup, submit it and trying to win money with it.
Now that I have the concept in place, it's time to break it all down for you so you can understand a little bit about why I'm approaching these daily fantasy sites with this method. Each week I'll be crunching the numbers for each position and giving you the projections.
First things first though, I want to preface this by saying that no one in the world can predict what is going to happen from week to week in the NFL, their are a billion variables involved and anything can happen, so these projections are far from the be all end all, but it's a great starting point.
I'll be using the FantasyPro's projections for these outcomes. They compile of a list of the best fantasy sites around and come up with a consensus number each week. These guys have been doing this for a long time and I trust that they know what they're talking about when it comes to projections.
Without further adieu, I'll now explain what relativity is. On my calculations for each position, you're going to see a label for "Player Name", "Price", "Projected Points", "Relative Price" and "Relative Points". Let me explain what each of these means and how they pertain to picking the best possible lineup you can to maximize your money and your overall production:
Relative Price: As I said, for each position you're going to see the Player Name and Fan Duel Price for each player. I've listed them from highest price to lowest price so we can get a very good read as we look for values.
Week 1: Drew Brees: $9,600
Week 1: Tony Romo: $8,200
As you see Drew Brees is the most expensive Quarterback for Week 1 at $9,600. Now we're going to compare his overall value to that of a slightly lower priced Quarterback.
Before I do that however, let me explain how the calculations work for Relative Price. With each position, it's crucial to figure out the most expensive player and then to build off of that. We'll be taking all the Quarterbacks and using their Fan Duel price against the most expensive player at the position to get their Relative Price. So Relative Price is simply the % of money you're saving by taking X player over the top priced player
Drew Brees: $9,600 / $9,600 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: $8,200/$9,600 = .85 (85%)
So as you can see, without taking projected points into account, I'm already getting a 15% value (100% - 85% = 15%) if I take Tony Romo instead of Drew Brees. But you're probably still thinking "Well duh, I can tell that I'm spending less on Romo than Brees, so whats your point and how does this help me?"
That leads me to Relative Points.
Relative Points: This works exactly the same as the Relative Dollars, except this time we'll be setting the highest projected player and forming our relative points for each players projections based off of the highest projected player at each position.
Drew Brees: 23 projected points
Tony Romo: 19.4 projected points
Sticking with the same two players for the Relative Dollars, we'll now figure out the Relative Price. All we'll be doing is taking each players projected points and dividing it from the top players projected to points to come up with a percentage of production in comparison to the top projected player.
Drew Brees: 23 / 23 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: 19.4 / 23 = .84 (84%)
As you can see, if we were to take Tony Romo over Drew Brees, we'd be getting 84% of Brees' weekly production if we went with Romo.
Now we must tie it all together to understand exactly why these two pieces of information are invaluable to us. But first, I want to emphasize it again, nobody can project the NFL, it's just not possible. But we have the best estimate from a reliable projection service to base our calculations off of. It's not the be all end all, but it's the only information we have to work with.
Drew Brees: $9,600 / $9,600 = 1.0 (100%)
Drew Brees: 23 / 23 = 1.0 (100%)
Tony Romo: $8,200 / $9,600 = .85 (85%)
Tony Romo: 19.4 / 23 = .84 (84%)
Our conclusion is that we can get 84% of Brees' production by drafting Tony Romo while spending 15% less money on him.
This doesn't just apply to Quarterbacks, it applies to any position where you're looking for value. Where this truly becomes valuable is when you're completely sold on a high priced player at any position. Once you draft a high priced player, your money to spend takes a significant hit and then you're scrambling to find good production at a low price at the other positions. Using this method not only helps you maximize your money into overall production, but it helps you spotlight the cheap steals later in the draft to allow you take a few of the higher priced guys you really want, but can't figure out what lower priced guys to plug in who will produce for you that week.
In my next articles I'll be showing you my calculations for each positions and naming what I feel are the top 5 best values at each position. Like I said, I'll be doing this weekly, so stay tuned!
Week 1 Quarterback Relativity Projections
Week 1 Running Back Relativity Projections
Week 1 Wide Receiver Relativity Projections
Week 1 Tight End Relativity Projections
Week 1 Optimal Lineups According to Relativity
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