Whats up everyone? In this article I'm going to review the optimal lineup I posted as well as breaking down the top lineup and how far off I was in my projection. Each week is another piece of information to add to my projections, so as you'll see I had some variables not fall my way, such as Ridley fumbling and getting put in Bill Belicheck's dog house for the majority of the game and how that may or may not have effected my week overall.
My optimal lineup results: Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Tony Romo - 19.4 - 17.42
RB: Frank Gore - 14.7 - 13.5
RB: Steven Ridley -14.7 - 2.6
WR: Andre Johnson - 15.0 - 20.6
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.3 - 15.4
WR: Pierre Garcon - 13.6 - 9.9
TE: Jimmy Graham - 14.2 - 12.5
Projected Total: 104.9 - Actual Total: 91.91 - Differential: -12.99
Winning lineup for Week 1 (Rotoworld freeroll): Name - Projected Points - Actual Points
QB: Matt Ryan - 23.1 - 20.36
RB: LeSean McCoy - 16.6 - 25.4
RB: Reggie Bush - 13.6 - 27.1
WR: Reggie Wayne - 11.9 - 19.6
WR: Randall Cobb - 10.9 - 20.9
WR: Danny Amendola - 13.2 - 15.4
TE: Brandon Meyers - 5.1 - 16.1
Projected Total: 94.4 - Actual Total: 144.86 - Differential: +50.46
As you can see, I only got above projected value on 2 of my players: Andre Johnson and Danny Amendola
The biggest thing I take from this is it can't be completely projection based, you need to get your studs in your lineups and not search completely for value everywhere. The whole point of using relativity was to do just that. The key is to go with your gut on the top guys and using the relative projections to find your value steals along the way.
Andre Johnson is an example of where combining stud factor and relativity together gets you a good pick. So with the Week 1 out of the way, I'll continue to tweak and manipulate my system to narrow it down even better. Starting next week, I plan on adding two new features:
1. I'm building a program that will generate multiple $50,000 lineups to fully maximize the projections - How I did it in Week 1 was simply found every value possible via my data and compiled a lineup. However, as you can see, nothing can be projected perfectly as certain players are going to have huge weeks. Reggie Bush for example, you could see that performance coming a mile away BUT I felt safer taking two stud running backs who had favorable matchups based off last year. You can see how that is flawed however, Gore torched the Packers last year, but was stuffed this year. We won't get a good read on what teams are good/bad against the run/pass until about week 4 or 5, so you can see why I based my opinion on Gore based on his performance against the same team last year
2. I'm going to add a new method to my projects that is Vegas based - As you all know, their are millions of dollars put down on bets every week in Vegas. How can this information be valuable to us? We'll their are guys called 'sharps' who are the top notch bettors in Vegas. Each week their bets are for display and we can get a read on which teams they feel will win and which ones won't. While that part of the equation means nothing, they also do the Over/Under for each game and this becomes extremely valuable to us. Lets say their are a few matchups where the Over/Under is set at 50. If the sharps are strongly taking the over, then we know that they're almost certain that their will be some massive scoring in those games and thus we should try to target players from those teams. Again, this is just an experiment as we try to perfect the formula for creating the best lineups possible.
Like always, if any of you have any suggestions, please feel free to leave comments. Constructive criticism is always good because it makes me better and good ideas/strategies on how to maximize my method are also very helpful. The goal is to win every week and with so much luck involved, any upper hand we can get statistically each week puts us one step closer to being the best we can be.
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